Rafael Nadal vs Stanislas Wawrinka – Australian Open Men’s Final Preview

A fortnight back most of the critics and fans would have predicted a Rafole final, considering their unstoppable form. But after 6 rounds of hard fought tennis, one half of the prediction has come true, with the other half was denied by the resurgent Swiss, Stanislas Wawrinka. While this is a record 19th Grand Slam final for Rafael Nadal (2nd on the list for most no of finals), this is Stan’s only 1st Grand Slam final( 2nd oldest person to debut in a GS final) after he overcame Thomas Berdych in his 2nd consecutive Grand Slam final. Here is their form and a brief statistical preview.

Rafael Nadal

Form :
Any claims that he was a clay-courter has been crushed after his US Open victory, and now, 4 months later, he is just a win away from entering the record books as the 3rd person, after Rod Laver and Roy Emerson, to win atleast two titles at each of the Slams. Going by his form, he is a hard-favourite to win his second AO title.

Considered to have being handled a tough draw, Nadal had both luck and his wobbly feet going his way. After Del Potro was knocked out in the second round by unseeded Bautista Agut, his draw looked much easier than previously anticipated. A third round crushing of potential up-setter ,Gael Monfils , sent out warning signs to rivals Djokovic , Murray and Federer, with the latter two in the same half of his draw. But then, a hindrance in the form of a blister in his playing hand created possibility that he might be eventually defeated in semi finals either by Murray or Federer. His below-par performance against Grigor “ don’t call me Baby Fed” Dimitrov, showed that Federer had a real chance against him, who has not defeated Nadal for 7 years in a GS. But his demolishing of a misfiring Federer in the semi-finals has removed any misconception that the blister could play any significant part in Rafa’s gameplay in the finals.

Stats :

Positives:

1st serve average of nearly 70%, with about 75% of first serve points won.
Good 65-70% of second serve points won, with an exception of 39% against Nishikori in Round 4.
Lost only one set in the tournament, against Dimitrov in Quarterfinals.
179 winners in the tournament, compared to 142 unforced errors.

Negitives:
32 Aces compared to 62 of his opponent Wawrinka.

Stanislas Wawrinka :

Form :

Well, everyone expected him to reach the Quarter finals, but not more than that. Everyone expected him to play a five set in the QF, but not win. But against the odds, and much to the fan’s expectations, he has reached his first ever GS final, defeating the 4 time winner Novak Djokovic in an epic 5 setter.  Wawrinka, who started the tournament in a similar fashion, had luck favouring him slightly after potential threat Vasek Pospisil withdrew from the third round match against him. But he showed that luck was not a matter at all, after he defeated Tommy Robredo(against whom he had a 1-6 record) in the 4th round, and against logic, defeated Novak Djokovic, thus ending his AO winning streak. Though he didn’t run out of steam in the SF, after he defeated Tomas Berdych, another guy who had a great tournament, in 4 sets. The fact that he was un-broken in the semi-finals will linger in Nadal’s mind. He himself has admitted that he has to be at his very best to defeat the new Swiss No1. 

Stats:
Positives :
62 aces- amongst the highest ace servers in the tournament.
84% first serve points won.
Astonishing 249 winners in the tournament.

Negitives:
1st serve % lingering around 60%
203 un-forced errors in the tournament.
17 double faults in the tournament, compared to 11 of Nadal(just 1 in the semi-final)

Verdict :
Irrespective of the results, Stan has won many hearts. But he is a man of intent, and his lesser celebrations after QF and SF victories has indicated that he knows his job is not done yet. But he needs to overcome his dismal record and mental block against Nadal, against whom he is yet to win a set.

As far as Nadal is concerned, he just needs to keep his calm and play his normal tennis.  Though the blister is still a problem, that probably will not dent the confidence of the Spanish Juggernaut.

Prediction : Nadal wins in 4 sets.